Will Bangladesh win Eurovision Asia 2026?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 100¢ · $245 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$245.22
-$19.36
99.9¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+13 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $99.9 | $99.85 | -$0.05 | 29% 185-443 (628) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 99.9¢ | $215.3 | $80.25 | -$14.85 | 39% 3479-5356 (8835) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.97 | +$0 | 29% 1059-2631 (3690) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $59.94 | $29.97 | -$0.91 | 41% 1570-2276 (3846) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 | 37% 165-281 (446) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $2.62 | $0.13 | -$2.5 | 30% 108-251 (359) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $0.61 | $0.03 | -$0.58 | 42% 2607-3596 (6203) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $0.5 | $0.02 | -$0.48 | 45% 4955-6107 (11062) |
Invested
$99.9
Value
$99.85
PnL
-$0.05
Record
29%
185-443 (628)
Invested
$215.3
Value
$80.25
PnL
-$14.85
Record
39%
3479-5356 (8835)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.97
PnL
+$0
Record
29%
1059-2631 (3690)
Invested
$59.94
Value
$29.97
PnL
-$0.91
Record
41%
1570-2276 (3846)
Invested
$5
Value
$5
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
165-281 (446)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$2.62
Value
$0.13
PnL
-$2.5
Record
30%
108-251 (359)
Invested
$0.61
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$0.58
Record
42%
2607-3596 (6203)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$0.5
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$0.48
Record
45%
4955-6107 (11062)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.