Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Baidu have the best AI model on December 15, 2026?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $227 held · ends Dec 16

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Dec 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$227.15

Combined PnL

-$26.65

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$224.33

Total Shares225

Combined PnL-$0.54

Yes6 traders

Total Value$2.83

Total Shares943

Combined PnL-$26.11

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Mature

48h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$79.72	$79.76	+$0.04	53% 6888-6032 (12920)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$74.93	$74.78	-$0.15	33% 220-451 (671)
iutwpfal<$100	Noavg 99¢	$74.25	$39.88	-$0.37	— 12-4 (16)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$29.97	$29.91	-$0.06	29% 232-564 (796)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.8¢	$14.1	$1.5	-$12.6	39% 3600-5658 (9258)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$8.28	$0.87	-$7.41	44% 5036-6461 (11497)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$55.49	$0.16	-$2.87	42% 2627-3655 (6282)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.6¢	$1.85	$0.12	-$1.73	31% 146-327 (473)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$1.11	$0.12	-$1	16% 22-118 (140)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$0.57	$0.06	-$0.51	12% 20-144 (164)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$79.72

Value

$79.76

PnL

+$0.04

Record

53%

6888-6032 (12920)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$74.93

Value

$74.78

PnL

-$0.15

Record

33%

220-451 (671)

iutwpfal<$100

Invested

$74.25

Value

$39.88

PnL

-$0.37

Record

—

12-4 (16)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$29.97

Value

$29.91

PnL

-$0.06

Record

29%

232-564 (796)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.1

Value

$1.5

PnL

-$12.6

Record

39%

3600-5658 (9258)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.28

Value

$0.87

PnL

-$7.41

Record

44%

5036-6461 (11497)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$55.49

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$2.87

Record

42%

2627-3655 (6282)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.85

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$1.73

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.11

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$1

Record

16%

22-118 (140)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.57

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$0.51

Record

12%

20-144 (164)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Mature

48h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.4%

0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7300.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

7400.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.