Will Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 78¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$1.3K
-$69.77
83.9¢ → 78¢
-7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 83.3¢ | $891.67 | $841.05 | -$50.62 | 56% 15248-11774 (27022) |
 Tenebrus7 | Noavg 88¢ | $176 | $162 | -$14 | 73% 2907-1060 (3967) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 20.1¢ | $158.09 | $142.81 | -$15.29 | 36% 15006-27064 (42070) |
GH ghorrock | Noavg 82¢ | $263.21 | $96.24 | -$7.78 | 57% 13272-10114 (23386) |
 smellyEllieCTR | Yesavg 17.5¢ | $624.59 | $41.23 | +$17.91 | 50% 937-951 (1888) |
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$891.67
Value
$841.05
PnL
-$50.62
Record
56%
15248-11774 (27022)
Tenebrus7Invested
$176
Value
$162
PnL
-$14
Record
73%
2907-1060 (3967)
Invested
$158.09
Value
$142.81
PnL
-$15.29
Record
36%
15006-27064 (42070)
Invested
$263.21
Value
$96.24
PnL
-$7.78
Record
57%
13272-10114 (23386)
smellyEllieCTRInvested
$624.59
Value
$41.23
PnL
+$17.91
Record
50%
937-951 (1888)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.