Will Avi Dichter be the next Speaker of the Knesset?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $711 held · ends Mar 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$711.32
$1.14
99.8¢ → 100¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Fresh
11h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 99.8¢ | $344.02 | $344.54 | +$0.52 | 50% 4547-4458 (9005) |
GO godblessme2026 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $276.31 | $276.82 | +$0.52 | 17% 54-273 (327) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $49.9 | $49.98 | +$0.08 | 29% 2516-6167 (8683) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $39.76 | $39.98 | +$0.22 | 53% 5381-4862 (10243) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $0.2 | $0.01 | -$0.19 | 41% 3040-4429 (7469) |
balthazarInvested
$344.02
Value
$344.54
PnL
+$0.52
Record
50%
4547-4458 (9005)
Invested
$276.31
Value
$276.82
PnL
+$0.52
Record
17%
54-273 (327)
Invested
$49.9
Value
$49.98
PnL
+$0.08
Record
29%
2516-6167 (8683)
Invested
$39.76
Value
$39.98
PnL
+$0.22
Record
53%
5381-4862 (10243)
Invested
$0.2
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.19
Record
41%
3040-4429 (7469)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.