Will "Avengers: Doomsday" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 340m and 360m?

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (77%) · No at 92¢ · $531 held · ends Dec 20

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Sun, Dec 20, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 77%

Total Value

$531.48

Combined PnL

-$59.52

Smart Money Entry

87.5¢ → 92¢

+5% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$460.11

Total Shares501

Combined PnL+$7.41

Yes3 traders

Total Value$71.37

Total Shares793

Combined PnL-$66.93

No — 77%Yes — 23%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SP SpringlyFawl	Noavg 93¢	$152.52	$150.06	-$2.46	27% 2564-7034 (9598)
WA WarriorH	Noavg 87.5¢	$205.52	$77.78	-$1.49	16% 1392-7374 (8766)
NostdamCTR	Yesavg 22.3¢	$142.38	$57.58	-$84.8	54% 1497-1266 (2763)
LP lpgb	Noavg 87.9¢	$102.83	$55.82	+$0.71	27% 659-1763 (2422)
GO god83743894	Noavg 89¢	$133.52	$54.9	+$0.9	38% 16029-25855 (41884)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 85¢	$203.9	$36.6	+$1.34	50% 59994-58808 (118802)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 88¢	$52.8	$27.45	-$0.75	46% 3898-4513 (8411)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 36.4¢	$19.6	$19.58	+$23.03	47% 2105-2397 (4502)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 93.6¢	$17.1	$16.47	-$0.45	28% 3048-7956 (11004)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 14.1¢	$223.42	$12.73	+$17.98	33% 20011-40834 (60845)
Istaroth	Noavg 84¢	$402.24	$12.18	-$13.17	13% 603-4221 (4824)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 94¢	$9.54	$9.29	-$0.25	39% 1311-2070 (3381)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$1.18	$1.06	-$0.12	16% 408-2125 (2533)

SpringlyFawl

Invested

$152.52

Value

$150.06

PnL

-$2.46

Record

27%

2564-7034 (9598)

WarriorH

Invested

$205.52

Value

$77.78

PnL

-$1.49

Record

16%

1392-7374 (8766)

NostdamCTR

Yes

Invested

$142.38

Value

$57.58

PnL

-$84.8

Record

54%

1497-1266 (2763)

lpgb

Invested

$102.83

Value

$55.82

PnL

+$0.71

Record

27%

659-1763 (2422)

god83743894

Invested

$133.52

Value

$54.9

PnL

+$0.9

Record

38%

16029-25855 (41884)

cigarettes

Invested

$203.9

Value

$36.6

PnL

+$1.34

Record

50%

59994-58808 (118802)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$52.8

Value

$27.45

PnL

-$0.75

Record

46%

3898-4513 (8411)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$19.6

Value

$19.58

PnL

+$23.03

Record

47%

2105-2397 (4502)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$17.1

Value

$16.47

PnL

-$0.45

Record

28%

3048-7956 (11004)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$223.42

Value

$12.73

PnL

+$17.98

Record

33%

20011-40834 (60845)

Istaroth

Invested

$402.24

Value

$12.18

PnL

-$13.17

Record

13%

603-4221 (4824)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$9.54

Value

$9.29

PnL

-$0.25

Record

39%

1311-2070 (3381)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.18

Value

$1.06

PnL

-$0.12

Record

16%

408-2125 (2533)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.