Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (77%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Atlanta Falcons win the 2026 NFC South?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 23¢ · $469 held · ends Jan 18, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
1 arb excluded
$469.12
$13.46
25¢ → 22.8¢
-9% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 23%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Late
834h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
3 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 TimeTravelerARB<$100 | Yesavg 24.8¢ | $217.24 | $211.82 | -$3.23 | 41% 2126-3051 (5177) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 24.8¢ | $172.63 | $156.02 | -$14.17 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 62¢ | $44.61 | $55.8 | +$10.94 | |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 26.8¢ | $218.51 | $143.66 | +$12.19 | 34% 19319-36895 (56214) |
CO cowcatCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24.2¢ | $59.02 | $54.78 | -$2.43 | 48% 1989-2132 (4121) |
CR cry.eth2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.5¢ | $18.75 | $25.37 | +$14 | 39% 10163-15762 (25925) |
0X 0x53eCc53E7CTR<$100 | Yesavg 34.8¢ | $32.38 | $21.34 | -$11.04 | 44% 506-657 (1163) |
 probabilityCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.5¢ | $11.53 | $11.44 | +$0.75 | 40% 1583-2383 (3966) |
TimeTravelerARB<$100Invested
$217.24
Value
$211.82
PnL
-$3.23
Record
41%
2126-3051 (5177)
Both legs:
Invested
$218.51
Value
$143.66
PnL
+$12.19
Record
34%
19319-36895 (56214)
Invested
$59.02
Value
$54.78
PnL
-$2.43
Record
48%
1989-2132 (4121)
Invested
$18.75
Value
$25.37
PnL
+$14
Record
39%
10163-15762 (25925)
Invested
$32.38
Value
$21.34
PnL
-$11.04
Record
44%
506-657 (1163)
probabilityCTR<$100Invested
$11.53
Value
$11.44
PnL
+$0.75
Record
40%
1583-2383 (3966)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
22.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.