Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will at least 5 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$0.95
-$282.98
15¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.4¢ | $92.52 | $0.37 | -$92.15 | 35% 16906-31245 (48151) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $101.07 | $0.3 | -$100.77 | 60% 7176-4688 (11864) |
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $58.09 | $0.17 | -$57.92 | 25% 180-534 (714) |
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $18.33 | $0.06 | -$18.28 | 17% 221-1047 (1268) |
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $13.91 | $0.04 | -$13.86 | 55% 6018-4905 (10923) |
Invested
$92.52
Value
$0.37
PnL
-$92.15
Record
35%
16906-31245 (48151)
Invested
$101.07
Value
$0.3
PnL
-$100.77
Record
60%
7176-4688 (11864)
Invested
$58.09
Value
$0.17
PnL
-$57.92
Record
25%
180-534 (714)
Invested
$18.33
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$18.28
Record
17%
221-1047 (1268)
Invested
$13.91
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$13.86
Record
55%
6018-4905 (10923)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.