Will Arkansas win the 2027 NCAA Men's Basketball National Championship?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 96¢ · $940 held · ends Apr 20, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 83%
$939.7
-$2.12
95.6¢ → 95.8¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 96%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938 | Noavg 95.8¢ | $722.57 | $719.6 | -$2.97 | 39% 1052-1631 (2683) |
 Lucerys | Noavg 96.1¢ | $121.87 | $120.97 | -$0.9 | 37% 3136-5367 (8503) |
AU auros2<$100 | Noavg 93.8¢ | $84.39 | $85.86 | +$1.47 | 84% 62-12 (74) |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Noavg 94.6¢ | $6.66 | $6.77 | +$0.11 | 48% 23-25 (48) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 94.1¢ | $4.73 | $4.8 | +$0.07 | 41% 3094-4461 (7555) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.3¢ | $1.71 | $1.71 | +$0.1 | 54% 461-396 (857) |
Invested
$722.57
Value
$719.6
PnL
-$2.97
Record
39%
1052-1631 (2683)
LucerysInvested
$121.87
Value
$120.97
PnL
-$0.9
Record
37%
3136-5367 (8503)
Invested
$84.39
Value
$85.86
PnL
+$1.47
Record
84%
62-12 (74)
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$6.66
Value
$6.77
PnL
+$0.11
Record
48%
23-25 (48)
Invested
$4.73
Value
$4.8
PnL
+$0.07
Record
41%
3094-4461 (7555)
Invested
$1.71
Value
$1.71
PnL
+$0.1
Record
54%
461-396 (857)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.