Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (53%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in October 2026 be between 1.9% and 2.1%?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 47¢ · $94 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
1 arb excluded
$94.04
$1.46
Research grade
NeutralNo at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Yesavg 55¢ | $81.82 | $80.3 | -$1.52 | 40% 2992-4404 (7396) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 55¢ | $50 | $48.18 | -$1.82 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 41.6¢ | $31.82 | $32.12 | +$0.3 | |
GO god83743894CTR<$100 | Noavg 36¢ | $5.4 | $6.3 | +$0.9 | 4% 15-322 (337) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Yesavg 52.5¢ | $5.25 | $5.3 | +$0.05 | 57% 56-43 (99) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Noavg 32¢ | $1.63 | $2.14 | +$0.51 | 35% 2848-5314 (8162) |
Invested
$81.82
Value
$80.3
PnL
-$1.52
Record
40%
2992-4404 (7396)
Both legs:
Invested
$5.4
Value
$6.3
PnL
+$0.9
Record
4%
15-322 (337)
Invested
$5.25
Value
$5.3
PnL
+$0.05
Record
57%
56-43 (99)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$1.63
Value
$2.14
PnL
+$0.51
Record
35%
2848-5314 (8162)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.