Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 96¢ · $913 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$913.25

Combined PnL

-$102.93

Smart Money Entry

86.8¢ → 96.3¢

+11% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$746.52

Total Shares750

Combined PnL+$42.42

Yes2 traders

Total Value$85.05

Total Shares2,250

Combined PnL-$145.35

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-16 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Late

769h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 85.4¢	$312.83	$310.7	+$10.37	35% 18692-34699 (53391)
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 82.8¢	$165.59	$189.2	+$23.61	49% 8939-9446 (18385)
DO donthackme	Noavg 91.7¢	$125.03	$128.99	+$3.96	73% 12946-4868 (17814)
PI PiEDawg	Noavg 91¢	$113.16	$117.64	+$4.48	49% 1785-1860 (3645)
HA HauchnCTR	Yesavg 10.2¢	$224.92	$82.89	-$142.03	37% 64-109 (173)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271ARB<$100	Noavg 90¢	$92.67	$81.68	-$10.99	27% 6972-19073 (26045)
└ No leg	Noavg 90¢	$54	$56.76	+$2.76
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 8.4¢	$38.67	$24.92	-$13.75
GenaTheBondKilIerCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$4.8	$2.16	-$3.32	51% 542-530 (1072)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$312.83

Value

$310.7

PnL

+$10.37

Record

35%

18692-34699 (53391)

smallreceipt

Invested

$165.59

Value

$189.2

PnL

+$23.61

Record

49%

8939-9446 (18385)

donthackme

Invested

$125.03

Value

$128.99

PnL

+$3.96

Record

73%

12946-4868 (17814)

PiEDawg

Invested

$113.16

Value

$117.64

PnL

+$4.48

Record

49%

1785-1860 (3645)

HauchnCTR

Yes

Invested

$224.92

Value

$82.89

PnL

-$142.03

Record

37%

64-109 (173)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271ARB<$100

Invested

$92.67

Value

$81.68

PnL

-$10.99

Record

27%

6972-19073 (26045)

Both legs:

No$5490¢+$2.76

Yes$38.678.4¢-$13.75

GenaTheBondKilIerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.8

Value

$2.16

PnL

-$3.32

Record

51%

542-530 (1072)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-16 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Late

769h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.4%

96.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.71

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.