Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 97¢ · $955 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 55%

Total Value

$954.75

Combined PnL

$348.58

Smart Money Entry

83¢ → 97.2¢

+17% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$805.42

Total Shares828

Combined PnL+$741.25

Yes5 traders

Total Value$149.32

Total Shares3,809

Combined PnL-$392.67

No — 55%Yes — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

791h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 81.3¢	$257.53	$295.97	+$44.7	34% 19319-36895 (56214)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 88.3¢	$247.36	$262.71	+$24.31	54% 12531-10868 (23399)
Lucerys	Noavg 92.3¢	$174.1	$152.32	+$32.4	72% 13903-5480 (19383)
HA HauchnCTR	Yesavg 10.2¢	$224.92	$62.99	-$161.93	37% 64-110 (174)
DE deltasniperCTR	Yesavg 23¢	$230	$54	-$201.5	58% 210-151 (361)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 96.5¢	$62.94	$43.79	+$0.38	43% 8780-11422 (20202)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 26¢	$35.2	$38.92	+$80.14	47% 10368-11827 (22195)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.6¢	$39.53	$21.68	-$19.99	26% 7339-21104 (28443)
E4 e46m3	Noavg 25.4¢	$637.13	$11.71	+$559.33	67% 27537-13843 (41380)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.5¢	$17.23	$8.49	-$5.6	40% 6547-9828 (16375)
GenaTheBondKilIerCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$4.8	$2.16	-$3.66	51% 548-533 (1081)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$257.53

Value

$295.97

PnL

+$44.7

Record

34%

19319-36895 (56214)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$247.36

Value

$262.71

PnL

+$24.31

Record

54%

12531-10868 (23399)

Lucerys

Invested

$174.1

Value

$152.32

PnL

+$32.4

Record

72%

13903-5480 (19383)

HauchnCTR

Yes

Invested

$224.92

Value

$62.99

PnL

-$161.93

Record

37%

64-110 (174)

deltasniperCTR

Yes

Invested

$230

Value

$54

PnL

-$201.5

Record

58%

210-151 (361)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$62.94

Value

$43.79

PnL

+$0.38

Record

43%

8780-11422 (20202)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$35.2

Value

$38.92

PnL

+$80.14

Record

47%

10368-11827 (22195)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.53

Value

$21.68

PnL

-$19.99

Record

26%

7339-21104 (28443)

e46m3

Invested

$637.13

Value

$11.71

PnL

+$559.33

Record

67%

27537-13843 (41380)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.23

Value

$8.49

PnL

-$5.6

Record

40%

6547-9828 (16375)

GenaTheBondKilIerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.8

Value

$2.16

PnL

-$3.66

Record

51%

548-533 (1081)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

791h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.2%

97.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.