Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2026?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 91¢ · $312 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$311.99
-$6.11
85.1¢ → 91¢
+7% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Late
157h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Noavg 88.1¢ | $123.4 | $127.4 | +$4 | 53% 5552-4936 (10488) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 85.5¢ | $51.3 | $54.6 | +$3.3 | 25% 842-2482 (3324) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $34.56 | $39.31 | +$4.75 | 37% 3112-5362 (8474) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $48.5 | $35.7 | -$12.8 | 41% 3090-4455 (7545) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $19.2 | $21.84 | +$2.64 | 30% 2638-6194 (8832) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $16 | $18.2 | +$2.2 | 50% 4583-4495 (9078) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $20.4 | $10.8 | -$9.6 | 50% 23-23 (46) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.3¢ | $4.74 | $4.14 | -$0.6 | 12% 18-127 (145) |
Invested
$123.4
Value
$127.4
PnL
+$4
Record
53%
5552-4936 (10488)
Invested
$51.3
Value
$54.6
PnL
+$3.3
Record
25%
842-2482 (3324)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$34.56
Value
$39.31
PnL
+$4.75
Record
37%
3112-5362 (8474)
Invested
$48.5
Value
$35.7
PnL
-$12.8
Record
41%
3090-4455 (7545)
Invested
$19.2
Value
$21.84
PnL
+$2.64
Record
30%
2638-6194 (8832)
balthazar<$100Invested
$16
Value
$18.2
PnL
+$2.2
Record
50%
4583-4495 (9078)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$20.4
Value
$10.8
PnL
-$9.6
Record
50%
23-23 (46)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$4.74
Value
$4.14
PnL
-$0.6
Record
12%
18-127 (145)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.