Will AP call US House control by November 6, 11:59 PM?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 81¢ · $511 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$511.39
-$152.79
82.2¢ → 81.5¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yesavg 80.9¢ | $209.55 | $195.89 | -$0.39 | 56% 15322-11880 (27202) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Yesavg 83.1¢ | $531.88 | $165.79 | -$148.21 | 36% 15698-27712 (43410) |
 2B9S<$100 | Yesavg 87.9¢ | $70.32 | $63.84 | -$5.72 | 18% 3817-17278 (21095) |
HE HerrieDavis<$100 | Yesavg 83.2¢ | $56.16 | $53.86 | -$1.76 | 36% 2060-3677 (5737) |
LI lineth<$100 | Yesavg 72¢ | $28.87 | $32 | +$3.29 | 41% 243-350 (593) |
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$209.55
Value
$195.89
PnL
-$0.39
Record
56%
15322-11880 (27202)
Invested
$531.88
Value
$165.79
PnL
-$148.21
Record
36%
15698-27712 (43410)
2B9S<$100Invested
$70.32
Value
$63.84
PnL
-$5.72
Record
18%
3817-17278 (21095)
Invested
$56.16
Value
$53.86
PnL
-$1.76
Record
36%
2060-3677 (5737)
Invested
$28.87
Value
$32
PnL
+$3.29
Record
41%
243-350 (593)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.