Will any other model be the best AI model on November 16, 2026?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 91¢ · $103 held · ends Nov 17
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$103.11
-$4.24
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $26.4 | $27.42 | +$1.02 | 40% 1494-2225 (3719) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $23.76 | $24.68 | +$0.92 | 40% 3295-4922 (8217) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $24.47 | $24.52 | +$0.04 | 48% 1232-1318 (2550) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 92.2¢ | $18.44 | $18.1 | -$0.34 | 53% 6191-5476 (11667) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $4.45 | $4.62 | +$0.17 | 26% 890-2526 (3416) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $4.01 | $1.92 | -$2.08 | 43% 2576-3406 (5982) |
VE VerilyWinningly<$100 | Noavg 91.4¢ | $23.44 | $1.41 | -$3.96 | 26% 378-1084 (1462) |
Invested
$26.4
Value
$27.42
PnL
+$1.02
Record
40%
1494-2225 (3719)
Invested
$23.76
Value
$24.68
PnL
+$0.92
Record
40%
3295-4922 (8217)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100Invested
$24.47
Value
$24.52
PnL
+$0.04
Record
48%
1232-1318 (2550)
Invested
$18.44
Value
$18.1
PnL
-$0.34
Record
53%
6191-5476 (11667)
Invested
$4.45
Value
$4.62
PnL
+$0.17
Record
26%
890-2526 (3416)
Invested
$4.01
Value
$1.92
PnL
-$2.08
Record
43%
2576-3406 (5982)
Invested
$23.44
Value
$1.41
PnL
-$3.96
Record
26%
378-1084 (1462)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.