Will any contestant beat Luke Littler?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 100¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 31

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

$2.4K

Smart Money Entry

66.1¢ → 100¢

+51% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares10,833

Combined PnL+$3.4K

No3 traders

Total Value$116.07

Total Shares3,664

Combined PnL-$992.58

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

281h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (3 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 3

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LE legioncre	Yesavg 68.1¢	$2.1K	$5.3K	+$3.3K	— 8-4 (12)
0xdc3E831cad	Yesavg 21.2¢	$97.93	$240.4	+$267.29	49% 1819-1895 (3714)
norrisfanCTR	Noavg 59¢	$758.4	$115.2	-$643.2	42% 478-659 (1137)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Yesavg 68.9¢	$950.81	$90.5	-$78.73	36% 15393-27456 (42849)
SH shovelingdiggingCTR	Noavg 32.1¢	$300	$0.47	-$299.53	60% 307-207 (514)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 6¢	$48	$0.4	-$49.84	18% 535-2427 (2962)

legioncre

Yes

Invested

$2,050.26

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$3.3K

Record

—

8-4 (12)

0xdc3E831cad

Yes

Invested

$97.93

Value

$240.4

PnL

+$267.29

Record

49%

1819-1895 (3714)

norrisfanCTR

Invested

$758.4

Value

$115.2

PnL

-$643.2

Record

42%

478-659 (1137)

xtxpleasecallme

Yes

Invested

$950.81

Value

$90.5

PnL

-$78.73

Record

36%

15393-27456 (42849)

shovelingdiggingCTR

Invested

$300

Value

$0.47

PnL

-$299.53

Record

60%

307-207 (514)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$48

Value

$0.4

PnL

-$49.84

Record

18%

535-2427 (2962)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

281h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (3 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 3

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.