Back to Markets
libratus1CTRNoYes
Contentious-DinnerdateCTR<$100NoYesYes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was No — but Yes won instead.
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?
Resolved Yes. 40% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
No 67%
Total Value
$439.71
Combined PnL
-$176.77
Smart Money Signal
No
2 of 5 top traders (40%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Yes100%
No0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares541
Combined PnL-$799.21
Yes3 traders
Total Value$439.71
Total Shares440
Combined PnL+$622.44
No — 40%Yes — 60%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
libratus1CTR | Noavg 72.6¢ | $395.28 | — | -$623.22 | 63% 640-368 (1008) |
DE dedidanc | Yesavg 35.3¢ | $155.41 | $439.71 | +$622.44 | 56% 93-72 (165) |
Contentious-DinnerdateCTR<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $82.31 | — | -$175.98 | 50% 391-396 (787) |
HI hithitfar<$100 | Yesavg 19.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 567-431 (998) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Yesavg 30.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 36% 15021-27071 (42092) |
libratus1CTRInvested
$395.28
Value
—
PnL
-$623.22
Record
63%
640-368 (1008)
DE
dedidancInvested
$155.41
Value
$439.71
PnL
+$622.44
Record
56%
93-72 (165)
Contentious-DinnerdateCTR<$100Invested
$82.31
Value
—
PnL
-$175.98
Record
50%
391-396 (787)
HI
hithitfar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
567-431 (998)
XT
xtxpleasecallme<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
15021-27071 (42092)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
Market Info
Condition ID
0x0fe55fed...23ee2f
Slug
will-any-ai-model-reach-a-chatbot-arena-score-of-at-least-1540-by-december-31