Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (53%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Antonio Martín del Campo win the 2027 Aguascalientes Governor Election?
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 48¢ · $1K held · ends Jun 7, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 50%
$1.0K
$165.66
57.4¢ → 47.5¢
-17% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 58.5¢ | $1.3K | $947.52 | +$157.56 | 36% 16083-28096 (44179) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Yesavg 51¢ | $20.61 | $20.14 | -$0.34 | 18% 366-1654 (2020) |
HE HerrieDavis<$100 | Yesavg 40¢ | $12.08 | $15.86 | +$3.78 | 36% 2086-3722 (5808) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 31.4¢ | $9.67 | $14.66 | +$4.98 | 61% 21355-13647 (35002) |
ME merodCTR<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $11.96 | $10.92 | -$1.04 | 51% 2516-2396 (4912) |
KO korda77CTR<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $11.96 | $10.92 | -$1.04 | 52% 5046-4717 (9763) |
SN SnapElectionAvoider<$100 | Yesavg 47¢ | $3.29 | $3.67 | +$0.38 | 53% 1174-1056 (2230) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $1.55 | $2.91 | +$1.36 | 76% 11358-3527 (14885) |
Invested
$1,284.66
Value
$947.52
PnL
+$157.56
Record
36%
16083-28096 (44179)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$20.61
Value
$20.14
PnL
-$0.34
Record
18%
366-1654 (2020)
Invested
$12.08
Value
$15.86
PnL
+$3.78
Record
36%
2086-3722 (5808)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$9.67
Value
$14.66
PnL
+$4.98
Record
61%
21355-13647 (35002)
Invested
$11.96
Value
$10.92
PnL
-$1.04
Record
51%
2516-2396 (4912)
Invested
$11.96
Value
$10.92
PnL
-$1.04
Record
52%
5046-4717 (9763)
Invested
$3.29
Value
$3.67
PnL
+$0.38
Record
53%
1174-1056 (2230)
Invested
$1.55
Value
$2.91
PnL
+$1.36
Record
76%
11358-3527 (14885)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.