Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $CLAU?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $4 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 100%
$3.96
-$49.85
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $35.6 | $2.49 | -$33.11 | 32% 2924-6249 (9173) |
ME merodCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $11.3 | $0.79 | -$10.51 | 82% 69-15 (84) |
NO northdrawerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $0.21 | $0.21 | +$0 | 27% 943-2516 (3459) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $2.7 | $0.19 | -$2.51 | 20% 782-3094 (3876) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $1.93 | $0.13 | -$1.79 | 39% 3421-5409 (8830) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $1.15 | $0.08 | -$1.07 | 79% 502-133 (635) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $0.92 | $0.06 | -$0.86 | 41% 3187-4522 (7709) |
Invested
$35.6
Value
$2.49
PnL
-$33.11
Record
32%
2924-6249 (9173)
Invested
$11.3
Value
$0.79
PnL
-$10.51
Record
82%
69-15 (84)
Invested
$0.21
Value
$0.21
PnL
+$0
Record
27%
943-2516 (3459)
Invested
$2.7
Value
$0.19
PnL
-$2.51
Record
20%
782-3094 (3876)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$1.93
Value
$0.13
PnL
-$1.79
Record
39%
3421-5409 (8830)
Invested
$1.15
Value
$0.08
PnL
-$1.07
Record
79%
502-133 (635)
Invested
$0.92
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$0.86
Record
41%
3187-4522 (7709)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.