Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (89%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $4 held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 89%

Total Value

$3.57

Combined PnL

-$125.65

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$1.67

Total Shares2

Combined PnL+$0.58

Yes8 traders

Total Value$1.91

Total Shares3,813

Combined PnL-$126.23

No — 11%Yes — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Late

772h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

7 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
vinii<$100	Noavg 65¢	$1.08	$1.67	+$0.58	73% 2888-1068 (3956)
occasionalAwarenessCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.31	$0.8	-$2.4	52% 285-262 (547)
JO JordanMooneyCTR	Yesavg 1.3¢	$139.32	$0.59	-$29.65	36% 1985-3555 (5540)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Yes	$0.16	$0.16	-$46.69	44% 6141-7864 (14005)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Yes	$0.14	$0.14	-$39.62	48% 8503-9045 (17548)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.75	$0.13	-$0.62	17% 4179-19735 (23914)
0X 0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.3	$0.05	-$0.25	45% 4201-5130 (9331)
0X 0x0E7Fa09bF44514634293b5ecC2420C50ABCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$6.64	$0.02	-$6.62	40% 121-184 (305)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$0.37	$0.01	-$0.36	35% 17512-32753 (50265)

vinii<$100

Invested

$1.08

Value

$1.67

PnL

+$0.58

Record

73%

2888-1068 (3956)

occasionalAwarenessCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.31

Value

$0.8

PnL

-$2.4

Record

52%

285-262 (547)

JordanMooneyCTR

Yes

Invested

$139.32

Value

$0.59

PnL

-$29.65

Record

36%

1985-3555 (5540)

korda77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.16

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$46.69

Record

44%

6141-7864 (14005)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.14

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$39.62

Record

48%

8503-9045 (17548)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.75

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$0.62

Record

17%

4179-19735 (23914)

0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.3

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.25

Record

45%

4201-5130 (9331)

0x0E7Fa09bF44514634293b5ecC2420C50ABCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.64

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$6.62

Record

40%

121-184 (305)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.37

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.36

Record

35%

17512-32753 (50265)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Late

772h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

7 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9061.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

9161.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.