Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.2T and 1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 91¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$2.1K
-$217.34
85¢ → 91.3¢
+8% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DI Dimpled-Foal | Noavg 80¢ | $708.3 | $782.48 | +$74.18 | 53% 194-169 (363) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 90.2¢ | $1.2K | $697.34 | -$11.52 | 36% 15094-27222 (42316) |
 DEGENKHANCTR | Yesavg 8.6¢ | $543.75 | $511 | -$178.74 | 66% 1105-564 (1669) |
 LornaPredictsCTR | Yesavg 10.6¢ | $101.66 | $54.34 | -$47.32 | 18% 519-2318 (2837) |
BU BurstedBubbleCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.9¢ | $91.51 | $53.06 | -$53.94 | — 4-5 (9) |
Invested
$708.3
Value
$782.48
PnL
+$74.18
Record
53%
194-169 (363)
Invested
$1,192.41
Value
$697.34
PnL
-$11.52
Record
36%
15094-27222 (42316)
DEGENKHANCTRInvested
$543.75
Value
$511
PnL
-$178.74
Record
66%
1105-564 (1669)
LornaPredictsCTRInvested
$101.66
Value
$54.34
PnL
-$47.32
Record
18%
519-2318 (2837)
Invested
$91.51
Value
$53.06
PnL
-$53.94
Record
—
4-5 (9)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.