Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (96%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.9T and 1.2T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 4.0¢ · $62 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$61.68
-$63.34
Research grade
AvoidYes at 4%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Late
721h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
5 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.6¢ | $35.62 | $37.1 | -$65.1 | 36% 16042-28051 (44093) |
DI Dimpled-FoalCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.4¢ | $18.79 | $12.97 | -$5.82 | 54% 229-195 (424) |
 vinii<$100 | Noavg 34¢ | $2.58 | $7.29 | +$4.72 | 74% 2789-1002 (3791) |
0X 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $0.25 | $3.75 | +$3.5 | 45% 112-137 (249) |
 DEGENKHANCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $1.21 | $0.57 | -$0.63 | 66% 1107-564 (1671) |
Invested
$35.62
Value
$37.1
PnL
-$65.1
Record
36%
16042-28051 (44093)
Invested
$18.79
Value
$12.97
PnL
-$5.82
Record
54%
229-195 (424)
vinii<$100Invested
$2.58
Value
$7.29
PnL
+$4.72
Record
74%
2789-1002 (3791)
Invested
$0.25
Value
$3.75
PnL
+$3.5
Record
45%
112-137 (249)
DEGENKHANCTR<$100Invested
$1.21
Value
$0.57
PnL
-$0.63
Record
66%
1107-564 (1671)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
4.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.