Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.6T and 0.9T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (62%) · No at 99¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 62%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

-$48.34

Smart Money Entry

99.4¢ → 99¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,081

Combined PnL-$25.84

Yes5 traders

Total Value$14.1

Total Shares1,484

Combined PnL-$22.51

No — 62%Yes — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Mature

35h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 99.8¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$34.39	53% 29253-26162 (55415)
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 99.2¢	$364.71	$365.91	+$1.2	42% 3178-4309 (7487)
GO godblessme2026	Noavg 99.4¢	$150.06	$150.24	+$0.18	42% 7010-9803 (16813)
KO korda77	Noavg 97.9¢	$98.88	$100.49	+$1.62	44% 6474-8170 (14644)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$29.91	$29.69	-$0.23	47% 8350-9514 (17864)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 96¢	$24	$24.87	+$0.87	55% 4408-3603 (8011)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$19.9	$19.9	+$0	49% 8836-9340 (18176)
vinii<$100	Noavg 33¢	$2.46	$7.43	+$4.91	73% 2905-1075 (3980)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.3¢	$21.95	$4.81	-$17.14	35% 18146-33983 (52129)
DEGENKHANCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$8.28	$3.3	-$4.98	66% 1153-588 (1741)
DI Dimpled-FoalCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$1.83	$3.02	+$1.2	52% 242-219 (461)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$4.33	$2.02	-$2.23	77% 12289-3775 (16064)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.3	$0.95	+$0.65	27% 6838-18773 (25611)

balthazar

Invested

$2,453.28

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$34.39

Record

53%

29253-26162 (55415)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$364.71

Value

$365.91

PnL

+$1.2

Record

42%

3178-4309 (7487)

godblessme2026

Invested

$150.06

Value

$150.24

PnL

+$0.18

Record

42%

7010-9803 (16813)

korda77

Invested

$98.88

Value

$100.49

PnL

+$1.62

Record

44%

6474-8170 (14644)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$29.91

Value

$29.69

PnL

-$0.23

Record

47%

8350-9514 (17864)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$24

Value

$24.87

PnL

+$0.87

Record

55%

4408-3603 (8011)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$19.9

Value

$19.9

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

8836-9340 (18176)

vinii<$100

Invested

$2.46

Value

$7.43

PnL

+$4.91

Record

73%

2905-1075 (3980)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.95

Value

$4.81

PnL

-$17.14

Record

35%

18146-33983 (52129)

DEGENKHANCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.28

Value

$3.3

PnL

-$4.98

Record

66%

1153-588 (1741)

Dimpled-FoalCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.83

Value

$3.02

PnL

+$1.2

Record

52%

242-219 (461)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.33

Value

$2.02

PnL

-$2.23

Record

77%

12289-3775 (16064)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.3

Value

$0.95

PnL

+$0.65

Record

27%

6838-18773 (25611)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Mature

35h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.