Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $2.25T and $2.50T?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 99¢ · $220 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$219.68
-$1.63
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-30 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 99.7¢ | $207.41 | $205.83 | -$1.58 | 52% 1020-950 (1970) |
QM QMG-CORECTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $8.35 | $13.37 | +$5.02 | — |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.5¢ | $2.54 | $0.21 | -$2.32 | — 1-9 (10) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.5¢ | $2.5 | $0.21 | -$2.29 | — 0-9 (9) |
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $0.51 | $0.05 | -$0.45 | — 7-0 (7) |
Invested
$207.41
Value
$205.83
PnL
-$1.58
Record
52%
1020-950 (1970)
Invested
$8.35
Value
$13.37
PnL
+$5.02
Record
—
Invested
$2.54
Value
$0.21
PnL
-$2.32
Record
—
1-9 (10)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$0.21
PnL
-$2.29
Record
—
0-9 (9)
Invested
$0.51
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$0.45
Record
—
7-0 (7)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.