Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in January 2027 (ET)?

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 95¢ · $978 held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$978.39

Combined PnL

$13.71

Smart Money Entry

86.1¢ → 95.3¢

+11% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$930.12

Total Shares1,010

Combined PnL-$7.79

Yes7 traders

Total Value$48.28

Total Shares1,475

Combined PnL+$21.5

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

716h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 80.8¢	$576.38	$459.83	-$9.96	35% 18887-34923 (53810)
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 92.3¢	$244.62	$243.54	-$1.09	49% 8980-9523 (18503)
balthazar	Noavg 92.8¢	$103.56	$99.77	-$3.79	53% 29797-26632 (56429)
PL plainfolder<$100	Noavg 81.6¢	$57.14	$64.33	+$7.19	35% 4298-8137 (12435)
GI GingerMcKenna<$100	Noavg 93.3¢	$90.02	$37.99	+$0.67	39% 3180-4986 (8166)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.4¢	$25.32	$19.88	-$5.44	56% 18396-14310 (32706)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.9¢	$19.22	$16.27	-$2.95	73% 12973-4920 (17893)
E4 e46m3<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$14.97	$14.21	-$0.75	72% 14229-5544 (19773)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 96.1¢	$10.51	$10.44	-$0.07	53% 8440-7509 (15949)
occasionalAwarenessCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$6.03	$8.5	+$21.66	53% 292-264 (556)
mombilCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.8¢	$5.85	$3.24	+$5.13	55% 1237-993 (2230)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.9¢	$35.08	$0.2	+$4.32	50% 9917-9935 (19852)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.6¢	$1.28	$0.12	-$1.16	77% 12530-3845 (16375)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$0.2	$0.06	-$0.07	61% 15012-9516 (24528)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$576.38

Value

$459.83

PnL

-$9.96

Record

35%

18887-34923 (53810)

smallreceipt

Invested

$244.62

Value

$243.54

PnL

-$1.09

Record

49%

8980-9523 (18503)

balthazar

Invested

$103.56

Value

$99.77

PnL

-$3.79

Record

53%

29797-26632 (56429)

plainfolder<$100

Invested

$57.14

Value

$64.33

PnL

+$7.19

Record

35%

4298-8137 (12435)

GingerMcKenna<$100

Invested

$90.02

Value

$37.99

PnL

+$0.67

Record

39%

3180-4986 (8166)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.32

Value

$19.88

PnL

-$5.44

Record

56%

18396-14310 (32706)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.22

Value

$16.27

PnL

-$2.95

Record

73%

12973-4920 (17893)

e46m3<$100

Invested

$14.97

Value

$14.21

PnL

-$0.75

Record

72%

14229-5544 (19773)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$10.51

Value

$10.44

PnL

-$0.07

Record

53%

8440-7509 (15949)

occasionalAwarenessCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.03

Value

$8.5

PnL

+$21.66

Record

53%

292-264 (556)

mombilCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.85

Value

$3.24

PnL

+$5.13

Record

55%

1237-993 (2230)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.08

Value

$0.2

PnL

+$4.32

Record

50%

9917-9935 (19852)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.28

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$1.16

Record

77%

12530-3845 (16375)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$0.07

Record

61%

15012-9516 (24528)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

716h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.5%

95.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.64

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.