Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in December 2026 (ET)?

11 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (79%) · No at 91¢ · $8K held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 79%

Total Value

$7.9K

Combined PnL

$344.6

Smart Money Entry

84.7¢ → 90.8¢

+7% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 14 top traders (79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$7.3K

Total Shares8,421

Combined PnL+$549.16

Yes3 traders

Total Value$538.85

Total Shares5,498

Combined PnL-$204.56

No — 79%Yes — 21%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

779h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

77% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616	Noavg 82.9¢	$661.39	$4.3K	+$439.19	45% 4225-5146 (9371)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 83.6¢	$3.0K	$1.6K	+$69.89	35% 18059-33813 (51872)
balthazarCTR	Yesavg 13.9¢	$819.32	$534.25	-$206.73	53% 29191-26096 (55287)
Istaroth	Noavg 89.3¢	$434.64	$394.23	-$37.11	15% 459-2699 (3158)
GO godblessme2026	Noavg 95.9¢	$279.9	$243.53	-$36.38	42% 6979-9779 (16758)
Haradwaith	Noavg 80.8¢	$259.13	$185.7	+$186.87	42% 5366-7297 (12663)
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 98.3¢	$186.89	$158.58	-$28.32	43% 3158-4259 (7417)
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 93.6¢	$159.16	$141.78	-$17.38	49% 8797-9307 (18104)
ME merod	Noavg 98.4¢	$163.34	$138.44	-$24.9	43% 3101-4154 (7255)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73	Noavg 84.6¢	$221.54	$92.87	-$2.7	40% 273-416 (689)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 82.9¢	$132.29	$80.09	-$1.45	77% 12233-3755 (15988)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 84.5¢	$27.02	$25.02	+$1.46	59% 11786-8040 (19826)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.1¢	$2.22	$4.41	+$2.19	53% 8200-7292 (15492)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yes	$0.18	$0.18	-$0.02	49% 123-126 (249)

0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616

Invested

$661.39

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$439.19

Record

45%

4225-5146 (9371)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$2,960.28

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$69.89

Record

35%

18059-33813 (51872)

balthazarCTR

Yes

Invested

$819.32

Value

$534.25

PnL

-$206.73

Record

53%

29191-26096 (55287)

Istaroth

Invested

$434.64

Value

$394.23

PnL

-$37.11

Record

15%

459-2699 (3158)

godblessme2026

Invested

$279.9

Value

$243.53

PnL

-$36.38

Record

42%

6979-9779 (16758)

Haradwaith

Invested

$259.13

Value

$185.7

PnL

+$186.87

Record

42%

5366-7297 (12663)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$186.89

Value

$158.58

PnL

-$28.32

Record

43%

3158-4259 (7417)

smallreceipt

Invested

$159.16

Value

$141.78

PnL

-$17.38

Record

49%

8797-9307 (18104)

merod

Invested

$163.34

Value

$138.44

PnL

-$24.9

Record

43%

3101-4154 (7255)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73

Invested

$221.54

Value

$92.87

PnL

-$2.7

Record

40%

273-416 (689)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$132.29

Value

$80.09

PnL

-$1.45

Record

77%

12233-3755 (15988)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$27.02

Value

$25.02

PnL

+$1.46

Record

59%

11786-8040 (19826)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.22

Value

$4.41

PnL

+$2.19

Record

53%

8200-7292 (15492)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.18

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$0.02

Record

49%

123-126 (249)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 14 top traders (79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

779h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

77% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.1%

90.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.52

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.