Will Anthropic sell less than 4% of its shares in its IPO?

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 99¢ · $447 held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$447.47

Combined PnL

$37.69

Smart Money Entry

86.9¢ → 99¢

+14% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$434.21

Total Shares424

Combined PnL+$41.79

Yes3 traders

Total Value$13.22

Total Shares110

Combined PnL-$4.1

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO northdrawer	Noavg 88¢	$198	$222.08	+$24.07	26% 888-2504 (3392)
WA WarriorH<$100	Noavg 82¢	$59.22	$62.45	+$4.55	— 0-12 (12)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 83¢	$53.4	$57.75	+$4.35	17% 12-60 (72)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 91.5¢	$18.3	$19.79	+$1.49	28% 2449-6153 (8602)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 88¢	$17.6	$19.74	+$2.14	50% 4494-4439 (8933)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 88¢	$17.6	$19.74	+$2.14	52% 5322-4827 (10149)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 88¢	$11.44	$12.83	+$1.39	38% 1193-1980 (3173)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 88¢	$8.89	$9.97	+$1.08	38% 173-282 (455)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 93¢	$9.3	$9.87	+$0.57	79% 177-47 (224)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$8.5	$6	-$2.5	41% 3010-4414 (7424)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$7.5	$6	-$1.5	— 1-10 (11)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$1.33	$1.22	-$0.1	34% 199-384 (583)

northdrawer

Invested

$198

Value

$222.08

PnL

+$24.07

Record

26%

888-2504 (3392)

WarriorH<$100

Invested

$59.22

Value

$62.45

PnL

+$4.55

Record

—

0-12 (12)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$53.4

Value

$57.75

PnL

+$4.35

Record

17%

12-60 (72)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$18.3

Value

$19.79

PnL

+$1.49

Record

28%

2449-6153 (8602)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$17.6

Value

$19.74

PnL

+$2.14

Record

50%

4494-4439 (8933)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$17.6

Value

$19.74

PnL

+$2.14

Record

52%

5322-4827 (10149)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$11.44

Value

$12.83

PnL

+$1.39

Record

38%

1193-1980 (3173)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$8.89

Value

$9.97

PnL

+$1.08

Record

38%

173-282 (455)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$9.3

Value

$9.87

PnL

+$0.57

Record

79%

177-47 (224)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.5

Value

PnL

-$2.5

Record

41%

3010-4414 (7424)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.5

Value

PnL

-$1.5

Record

—

1-10 (11)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.33

Value

$1.22

PnL

-$0.1

Record

34%

199-384 (583)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.