Will Anthropic sell between 8% and 9% of its shares in its IPO?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 99¢ · $382 held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$381.76

Combined PnL

-$2.81

Smart Money Entry

99.5¢ → 98.9¢

-1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$381.08

Total Shares385

Combined PnL-$2.43

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.68

Total Shares225

Combined PnL-$0.39

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU quietparcel	Noavg 99.5¢	$223.95	$222.53	-$1.42	15% 41-237 (278)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$79.56	$79.06	-$0.5	50% 4547-4459 (9006)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$20.22	$20.06	-$0.16	38% 253-414 (667)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$19.9	$19.78	-$0.12	29% 2519-6167 (8686)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$19.86	$19.78	-$0.08	53% 5388-4864 (10252)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$10.05	$9.99	-$0.06	38% 575-934 (1509)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$9.97	$9.89	-$0.08	79% 231-63 (294)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.66	$0.49	-$0.16	15% 15-85 (100)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0.4	$0.18	-$0.22	41% 3041-4429 (7470)

quietparcel

Invested

$223.95

Value

$222.53

PnL

-$1.42

Record

15%

41-237 (278)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$79.56

Value

$79.06

PnL

-$0.5

Record

50%

4547-4459 (9006)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$20.22

Value

$20.06

PnL

-$0.16

Record

38%

253-414 (667)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$19.9

Value

$19.78

PnL

-$0.12

Record

29%

2519-6167 (8686)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.86

Value

$19.78

PnL

-$0.08

Record

53%

5388-4864 (10252)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$10.05

Value

$9.99

PnL

-$0.06

Record

38%

575-934 (1509)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$9.97

Value

$9.89

PnL

-$0.08

Record

79%

231-63 (294)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.66

Value

$0.49

PnL

-$0.16

Record

15%

15-85 (100)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.4

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$0.22

Record

41%

3041-4429 (7470)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.