Will Anthropic sell between 7% and 8% of its shares in its IPO?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 88¢ · $310 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$309.64
-$23.52
99.2¢ → 87.9¢
-11% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Mature
17h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GR graynotebook19 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $223.94 | $194.74 | -$29.2 | 25% 842-2482 (3324) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $59.7 | $51.88 | -$7.82 | 50% 4584-4495 (9079) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $19.19 | $17.31 | -$1.88 | 30% 2638-6194 (8832) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 97.3¢ | $19.46 | $17.31 | -$2.15 | 53% 5552-4939 (10491) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $0.51 | $17.08 | +$16.57 | 12% 18-127 (145) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $9.97 | $8.66 | -$1.31 | 78% 298-83 (381) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $0.1 | $1.37 | +$1.27 | 41% 324-472 (796) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $0.29 | $1.3 | +$1.01 | 41% 3090-4455 (7545) |
Invested
$223.94
Value
$194.74
PnL
-$29.2
Record
25%
842-2482 (3324)
balthazar<$100Invested
$59.7
Value
$51.88
PnL
-$7.82
Record
50%
4584-4495 (9079)
Invested
$19.19
Value
$17.31
PnL
-$1.88
Record
30%
2638-6194 (8832)
Invested
$19.46
Value
$17.31
PnL
-$2.15
Record
53%
5552-4939 (10491)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.51
Value
$17.08
PnL
+$16.57
Record
12%
18-127 (145)
Invested
$9.97
Value
$8.66
PnL
-$1.31
Record
78%
298-83 (381)
Invested
$0.1
Value
$1.37
PnL
+$1.27
Record
41%
324-472 (796)
Invested
$0.29
Value
$1.3
PnL
+$1.01
Record
41%
3090-4455 (7545)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.