Will Anthropic sell between 7% and 8% of its shares in its IPO?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 95¢ · $319 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$319.05
-$14.11
99.2¢ → 95.5¢
-4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GR graynotebook19 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $223.94 | $213.64 | -$10.3 | 25% 822-2479 (3301) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $59.7 | $56.91 | -$2.79 | 50% 4547-4459 (9006) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $19.19 | $18.99 | -$0.2 | 29% 2519-6167 (8686) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 97.3¢ | $19.46 | $18.99 | -$0.47 | 53% 5388-4864 (10252) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $9.97 | $9.5 | -$0.47 | 79% 231-63 (294) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $0.51 | $0.89 | +$0.38 | 15% 15-85 (100) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $0.1 | $0.07 | -$0.03 | 36% 254-444 (698) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $0.29 | $0.07 | -$0.22 | 41% 3041-4429 (7470) |
Invested
$223.94
Value
$213.64
PnL
-$10.3
Record
25%
822-2479 (3301)
balthazar<$100Invested
$59.7
Value
$56.91
PnL
-$2.79
Record
50%
4547-4459 (9006)
Invested
$19.19
Value
$18.99
PnL
-$0.2
Record
29%
2519-6167 (8686)
Invested
$19.46
Value
$18.99
PnL
-$0.47
Record
53%
5388-4864 (10252)
Invested
$9.97
Value
$9.5
PnL
-$0.47
Record
79%
231-63 (294)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.51
Value
$0.89
PnL
+$0.38
Record
15%
15-85 (100)
Invested
$0.1
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$0.03
Record
36%
254-444 (698)
Invested
$0.29
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$0.22
Record
41%
3041-4429 (7470)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.