Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (79%). 11 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Anthropic sell between 6% and 7% of its shares in its IPO?

11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 21¢ · $362 held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes79¢No21¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 92%

Total Value

$362.2

Combined PnL

-$432.89

Smart Money Entry

53.6¢ → 21.3¢

-60% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 12 top traders (92%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 79%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes79%

No21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$359

Total Shares1,459

Combined PnL-$433.81

Yes1 trader

Total Value$3.2

Total Shares5

Combined PnL+$0.92

No — 92%Yes — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 92% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HaradwaithCTR	Noavg 42.5¢	$233.02	$117.67	-$115.35	— 8-9 (17)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 75.9¢	$254.45	$98.95	-$155.5	41% 3010-4415 (7425)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 41.1¢	$92.53	$56.03	-$36.5	4% 17-366 (383)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 59.3¢	$78.85	$28.53	-$50.32	17% 12-60 (72)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Noavg 78.7¢	$63.75	$20.11	-$43.47	— 0-12 (12)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 46.3¢	$37.08	$19.92	-$17.16	50% 4494-4439 (8933)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 42.2¢	$8.44	$5.08	-$3.36	28% 2449-6153 (8602)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 50.8¢	$10.16	$4.98	-$5.18	52% 5324-4829 (10153)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Noavg 46.5¢	$6.04	$3.24	-$2.8	38% 1194-1980 (3174)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Yesavg 45.1¢	$2.27	$3.2	+$0.92	31% 190-424 (614)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 42.7¢	$4.27	$2.49	-$1.78	79% 177-47 (224)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 54.4¢	$4.4	$2.01	-$2.39	34% 199-384 (583)

HaradwaithCTR

Invested

$233.02

Value

$117.67

PnL

-$115.35

Record

—

8-9 (17)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$254.45

Value

$98.95

PnL

-$155.5

Record

41%

3010-4415 (7425)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$92.53

Value

$56.03

PnL

-$36.5

Record

17-366 (383)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$78.85

Value

$28.53

PnL

-$50.32

Record

17%

12-60 (72)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Invested

$63.75

Value

$20.11

PnL

-$43.47

Record

—

0-12 (12)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$37.08

Value

$19.92

PnL

-$17.16

Record

50%

4494-4439 (8933)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$8.44

Value

$5.08

PnL

-$3.36

Record

28%

2449-6153 (8602)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$10.16

Value

$4.98

PnL

-$5.18

Record

52%

5324-4829 (10153)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Invested

$6.04

Value

$3.24

PnL

-$2.8

Record

38%

1194-1980 (3174)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.27

Value

$3.2

PnL

+$0.92

Record

31%

190-424 (614)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$4.27

Value

$2.49

PnL

-$1.78

Record

79%

177-47 (224)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$4.4

Value

$2.01

PnL

-$2.39

Record

34%

199-384 (583)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 12 top traders (92%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 79%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 92% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance23.0%

21.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$333.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

433.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.