Will Anthropic sell between 5% and 6% of its shares in its IPO?

12 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 85¢ · $615 held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes16¢No84¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 86%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$614.87

Combined PnL

-$11.75

Smart Money Entry

78.4¢ → 84.5¢

+8% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 14 top traders (86%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$391.42

Total Shares444

Combined PnL+$30.27

Yes2 traders

Total Value$41.98

Total Shares323

Combined PnL-$42.02

No — 86%Yes — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 89% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO godblessme2026	Noavg 79¢	$177.75	$195.75	+$18	21% 75-278 (353)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 76.4¢	$113.09	$111.08	-$2.01	41% 3090-4455 (7545)
└ No leg	Noavg 76.4¢	$67.84	$77.21	+$9.37
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 17.4¢	$45.24	$33.86	-$11.38
LornaPredictsARB<$100	Yesavg 24.2¢	$88.93	$70.39	-$18.54	12% 18-127 (145)
└ No leg	Noavg 77.6¢	$38.8	$43.5	+$4.7
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 24.2¢	$50.13	$26.89	-$23.24
balthazar<$100	Noavg 78.3¢	$62.6	$69.6	+$7	50% 4584-4495 (9079)
HaradwaithCTR	Yesavg 26.5¢	$137.37	$40.66	-$41.62	50% 23-23 (46)
WA WarriorH<$100	Noavg 68¢	$37.9	$20.58	-$3.43	4% 1-24 (25)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100	Noavg 84¢	$24.42	$20	-$0	— 1-18 (19)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 76¢	$15.2	$17.4	+$2.2	37% 3112-5362 (8474)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 81.5¢	$16.3	$17.4	+$1.1	30% 2638-6194 (8832)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 77¢	$15.4	$17.4	+$2	53% 5552-4939 (10491)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 75.3¢	$9.79	$11.31	+$1.52	39% 1250-1994 (3244)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 85¢	$8.5	$8.7	+$0.2	78% 298-83 (381)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 76¢	$3.89	$4.45	+$0.56	40% 644-964 (1608)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 76¢	$3.86	$4.42	+$0.56	40% 329-494 (823)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 76¢	$3.85	$4.4	+$0.56	47% 292-335 (627)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$1.73	$1.33	-$0.41	45% 306-367 (673)

godblessme2026

Invested

$177.75

Value

$195.75

PnL

+$18

Record

21%

75-278 (353)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$113.09

Value

$111.08

PnL

-$2.01

Record

41%

3090-4455 (7545)

Both legs:

No$67.8476.4¢+$9.37

Yes$45.2417.4¢-$11.38

LornaPredictsARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$88.93

Value

$70.39

PnL

-$18.54

Record

12%

18-127 (145)

Both legs:

No$38.877.6¢+$4.7

Yes$50.1324.2¢-$23.24

balthazar<$100

Invested

$62.6

Value

$69.6

PnL

+$7

Record

50%

4584-4495 (9079)

HaradwaithCTR

Yes

Invested

$137.37

Value

$40.66

PnL

-$41.62

Record

50%

23-23 (46)

WarriorH<$100

Invested

$37.9

Value

$20.58

PnL

-$3.43

Record

1-24 (25)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100

Invested

$24.42

Value

$20

PnL

-$0

Record

—

1-18 (19)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$15.2

Value

$17.4

PnL

+$2.2

Record

37%

3112-5362 (8474)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$16.3

Value

$17.4

PnL

+$1.1

Record

30%

2638-6194 (8832)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$15.4

Value

$17.4

PnL

+$2

Record

53%

5552-4939 (10491)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$9.79

Value

$11.31

PnL

+$1.52

Record

39%

1250-1994 (3244)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$8.5

Value

$8.7

PnL

+$0.2

Record

78%

298-83 (381)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$3.89

Value

$4.45

PnL

+$0.56

Record

40%

644-964 (1608)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$3.86

Value

$4.42

PnL

+$0.56

Record

40%

329-494 (823)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$3.85

Value

$4.4

PnL

+$0.56

Record

47%

292-335 (627)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.73

Value

$1.33

PnL

-$0.41

Record

45%

306-367 (673)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 14 top traders (86%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 89% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.0%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.