Will Anthropic sell between 4% and 5% of its shares in its IPO?

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 96¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$51.2

Smart Money Entry

86.4¢ → 95.5¢

+10% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,185

Combined PnL+$92.61

Yes2 traders

Total Value$133.23

Total Shares1,502

Combined PnL-$41.41

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ME melonmanm	Noavg 86.3¢	$668.85	$736.19	+$67.35	2% 2-109 (111)
HA haveagoodday	Noavg 88¢	$198	$213.75	+$15.75	39% 1397-2152 (3549)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 19.7¢	$118.56	$81.89	-$36.67	41% 3010-4415 (7425)
KL klli27<$100	Noavg 95¢	$60.9	$60.05	-$0.65	27% 499-1343 (1842)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.9¢	$56.09	$51.35	-$4.75	17% 12-60 (72)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 77.4¢	$21.97	$26.95	+$4.98	31% 190-424 (614)
WA WarriorH<$100	Noavg 71¢	$32.45	$24.75	-$2.18	— 0-12 (12)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 87¢	$17.4	$19	+$1.6	52% 5324-4829 (10153)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 88¢	$17.6	$19	+$1.4	28% 2449-6153 (8602)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 86.2¢	$11.2	$12.35	+$1.15	38% 1194-1980 (3174)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 78¢	$7.8	$9.5	+$1.7	79% 177-47 (224)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 76¢	$6.08	$7.6	+$1.52	35% 2910-5328 (8238)

melonmanm

Invested

$668.85

Value

$736.19

PnL

+$67.35

Record

2-109 (111)

haveagoodday

Invested

$198

Value

$213.75

PnL

+$15.75

Record

39%

1397-2152 (3549)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$118.56

Value

$81.89

PnL

-$36.67

Record

41%

3010-4415 (7425)

klli27<$100

Invested

$60.9

Value

$60.05

PnL

-$0.65

Record

27%

499-1343 (1842)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$56.09

Value

$51.35

PnL

-$4.75

Record

17%

12-60 (72)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$21.97

Value

$26.95

PnL

+$4.98

Record

31%

190-424 (614)

WarriorH<$100

Invested

$32.45

Value

$24.75

PnL

-$2.18

Record

—

0-12 (12)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$17.4

Value

$19

PnL

+$1.6

Record

52%

5324-4829 (10153)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$17.6

Value

$19

PnL

+$1.4

Record

28%

2449-6153 (8602)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$11.2

Value

$12.35

PnL

+$1.15

Record

38%

1194-1980 (3174)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$7.8

Value

$9.5

PnL

+$1.7

Record

79%

177-47 (224)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$6.08

Value

$7.6

PnL

+$1.52

Record

35%

2910-5328 (8238)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.6%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.