Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 10 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Anthropic sell between 11% and 12% of its shares in its IPO?

10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $104 held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$104.36

Combined PnL

$46.38

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$104.36

Total Shares580

Combined PnL+$46.38

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$22.5	$40.5	+$18	17% 91-447 (538)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$14.64	$26.35	+$11.71	40% 3231-4852 (8083)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$7.99	$14.39	+$6.4	47% 4803-5424 (10227)
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$4	$7.2	+$3.2	— 3-14 (17)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$2.8	$5.04	+$2.24	37% 3439-5885 (9324)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$2	$3.6	+$1.6	30% 2939-6893 (9832)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$1.3	$2.34	+$1.04	39% 1385-2190 (3575)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$1.25	$2.25	+$1	12% 34-257 (291)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$1	$1.8	+$0.8	35% 512-942 (1454)
KL klli27CTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$0.5	$0.9	+$0.4	28% 527-1382 (1909)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.5

Value

$40.5

PnL

+$18

Record

17%

91-447 (538)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.64

Value

$26.35

PnL

+$11.71

Record

40%

3231-4852 (8083)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.99

Value

$14.39

PnL

+$6.4

Record

47%

4803-5424 (10227)

GingerMcKennaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$7.2

PnL

+$3.2

Record

—

3-14 (17)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.8

Value

$5.04

PnL

+$2.24

Record

37%

3439-5885 (9324)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$3.6

PnL

+$1.6

Record

30%

2939-6893 (9832)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.3

Value

$2.34

PnL

+$1.04

Record

39%

1385-2190 (3575)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.25

Value

$2.25

PnL

+$1

Record

12%

34-257 (291)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$1.8

PnL

+$0.8

Record

35%

512-942 (1454)

klli27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.5

Value

$0.9

PnL

+$0.4

Record

28%

527-1382 (1909)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9061.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

9161.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.