Will Anthropic raise less than $65B in its IPO?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 86¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$2.0K
$179.82
88.7¢ → 86.4¢
-3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 88.7¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$3 | 63% 1382-820 (2202) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $168.08 | $341.14 | +$173.06 | — |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Noavg 86.2¢ | $86.2 | $94.7 | +$8.5 | — 3-6 (9) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 86.7¢ | $62.35 | $62.52 | +$0.17 | 64% 72-40 (112) |
JO JordanMooney<$100 | Noavg 97.4¢ | $50.01 | $44.71 | -$4.23 | — 7-0 (7) |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Noavg 88.2¢ | $22.05 | $23.67 | +$1.62 | — 1-7 (8) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.9¢ | $3.58 | $1.27 | -$2.3 | — 0-9 (9) |
Invested
$1,390.74
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$3
Record
63%
1382-820 (2202)
Invested
$168.08
Value
$341.14
PnL
+$173.06
Record
—
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$86.2
Value
$94.7
PnL
+$8.5
Record
—
3-6 (9)
Invested
$62.35
Value
$62.52
PnL
+$0.17
Record
64%
72-40 (112)
Invested
$50.01
Value
$44.71
PnL
-$4.23
Record
—
7-0 (7)
Invested
$22.05
Value
$23.67
PnL
+$1.62
Record
—
1-7 (8)
Invested
$3.58
Value
$1.27
PnL
-$2.3
Record
—
0-9 (9)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.