Will Anthropic not IPO by November 30, 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 90¢ · $386 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$386.42
$9.96
87.2¢ → 89.5¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 89¢ | $160.2 | $161.1 | +$0.9 | 56% 15238-11763 (27001) |
 balthazar | Noavg 83.4¢ | $129.91 | $137.08 | +$7.17 | 61% 20651-13088 (33739) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $44.5 | $44.75 | +$0.25 | 42% 5192-7113 (12305) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 88.4¢ | $39.39 | $39 | -$0.31 | 28% 280-738 (1018) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18.1¢ | $10.67 | $4.49 | +$1.94 | 35% 14814-26946 (41760) |
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$160.2
Value
$161.1
PnL
+$0.9
Record
56%
15238-11763 (27001)
balthazarInvested
$129.91
Value
$137.08
PnL
+$7.17
Record
61%
20651-13088 (33739)
Invested
$44.5
Value
$44.75
PnL
+$0.25
Record
42%
5192-7113 (12305)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$39.39
Value
$39
PnL
-$0.31
Record
28%
280-738 (1018)
Invested
$10.67
Value
$4.49
PnL
+$1.94
Record
35%
14814-26946 (41760)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.