Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (54%). 2 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of December 2026?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 46¢ · $269 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
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Neutral
Yes
2
Yes 100%
1 arb excluded
$269.15
$2.08
Research grade
NeutralYes at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $200.01 | $198.05 | -$0.08 | 17% 402-1972 (2374) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 50¢ | $99.03 | $106.95 | +$7.84 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 50¢ | $99.03 | $91.1 | -$7.92 | |
35 35066FE58feCTR<$100 | Yesavg 44.6¢ | $58.92 | $51.12 | +$2.28 | 42% 627-850 (1477) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 54¢ | $20.18 | $19.98 | -$0.2 | 23% 178-602 (780) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.