Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (71%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of November 2026?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 30¢ · $677 held · ends Dec 1
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$676.97
$20.42
65¢ → 29.5¢
-55% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 30%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 62%
Freshness
Late
590h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
5 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 yen4uCTR | Yesavg 82.8¢ | $194.55 | $191.52 | -$73.52 | 86% 778-131 (909) |
 IstarothCTR | Yesavg 61.1¢ | $184.24 | $180 | -$2.24 | 23% 287-958 (1245) |
 2B9SCTR | Yesavg 57.5¢ | $134.17 | $129.39 | +$3.19 | 18% 3784-17134 (20918) |
DE dedidancCTR<$100 | Yesavg 46¢ | $54.99 | $97.43 | +$11.95 | 56% 94-73 (167) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 39.6¢ | $419.01 | $76.61 | +$84.48 | 36% 15093-27221 (42314) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $5.47 | $2.02 | -$3.45 | 45% 1830-2273 (4103) |
yen4uCTRInvested
$194.55
Value
$191.52
PnL
-$73.52
Record
86%
778-131 (909)
IstarothCTRInvested
$184.24
Value
$180
PnL
-$2.24
Record
23%
287-958 (1245)
2B9SCTRInvested
$134.17
Value
$129.39
PnL
+$3.19
Record
18%
3784-17134 (20918)
Invested
$54.99
Value
$97.43
PnL
+$11.95
Record
56%
94-73 (167)
Invested
$419.01
Value
$76.61
PnL
+$84.48
Record
36%
15093-27221 (42314)
Invested
$5.47
Value
$2.02
PnL
-$3.45
Record
45%
1830-2273 (4103)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.