Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of December 2026?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 81¢ · $195 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes81¢No19¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$195.36

Combined PnL

$3.58

Smart Money Entry

78.8¢ → 80.5¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes81%

No20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$182.95

Total Shares230

Combined PnL+$1.68

No3 traders

Total Value$12.41

Total Shares50

Combined PnL+$1.9

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Yesavg 79.2¢	$150.47	$152.95	+$2.48	39% 1053-1631 (2684)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Yesavg 77¢	$30.8	$30	-$0.8	41% 3119-4481 (7600)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Noavg 21¢	$5.04	$6	+$0.96	17% 66-330 (396)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 22¢	$4.4	$5	+$0.6	12% 21-155 (176)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 19¢	$1.07	$1.41	+$0.34	30% 2714-6211 (8925)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Yes

Invested

$150.47

Value

$152.95

PnL

+$2.48

Record

39%

1053-1631 (2684)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.8

Value

$30

PnL

-$0.8

Record

41%

3119-4481 (7600)

god83743894CTR<$100

Invested

$5.04

Value

PnL

+$0.96

Record

17%

66-330 (396)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$4.4

Value

PnL

+$0.6

Record

12%

21-155 (176)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$1.07

Value

$1.41

PnL

+$0.34

Record

30%

2714-6211 (8925)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 81%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.1%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.