Will Anthropic be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of November 2026?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 85¢ · $88 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$88.43
-$1.2
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $25.8 | $25.5 | -$0.3 | 28% 2449-6153 (8602) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $25.8 | $25.5 | -$0.3 | 10% 25-236 (261) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $26.1 | $25.5 | -$0.6 | 28% 827-2133 (2960) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $11.93 | $11.93 | +$0 | 41% 3007-4413 (7420) |
Invested
$25.8
Value
$25.5
PnL
-$0.3
Record
28%
2449-6153 (8602)
Invested
$25.8
Value
$25.5
PnL
-$0.3
Record
10%
25-236 (261)
Invested
$26.1
Value
$25.5
PnL
-$0.6
Record
28%
827-2133 (2960)
Invested
$11.93
Value
$11.93
PnL
+$0
Record
41%
3007-4413 (7420)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.