Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of January 2027 (Style Control On)?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 81¢ · $319 held · ends Feb 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$319.38
-$19.1
83.8¢ → 81¢
-3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth | Noavg 85.7¢ | $400.06 | $240 | -$27.68 | 15% 459-2699 (3158) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 20.5¢ | $145.44 | $32.13 | +$2.83 | 35% 18059-33813 (51872) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $22.29 | $27 | +$4.71 | 18% 4276-20026 (24302) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 76.9¢ | $26.92 | $20.25 | +$1.04 | 59% 11786-8040 (19826) |
IstarothInvested
$400.06
Value
$240
PnL
-$27.68
Record
15%
459-2699 (3158)
Invested
$145.44
Value
$32.13
PnL
+$2.83
Record
35%
18059-33813 (51872)
2B9S<$100Invested
$22.29
Value
$27
PnL
+$4.71
Record
18%
4276-20026 (24302)
Invested
$26.92
Value
$20.25
PnL
+$1.04
Record
59%
11786-8040 (19826)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.