Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 55¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$1.6K
$243.43
36.1¢ → 54.5¢
+51% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Contentious-Dinnerdate | Yesavg 36.2¢ | $628.06 | $1.4K | +$204.57 | 50% 390-393 (783) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 44.1¢ | $126.65 | $161.62 | +$34.97 | 36% 14550-25983 (40533) |
KI KiruaTrading<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $30 | $78 | +$8.5 | 56% 248-194 (442) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Noavg 59.5¢ | $35.2 | $16.88 | -$6.21 | 42% 5172-7103 (12275) |
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438<$100 | Yesavg 54.9¢ | $38.69 | $11.19 | +$1.6 | 53% 320-284 (604) |
Contentious-DinnerdateInvested
$628.06
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$204.57
Record
50%
390-393 (783)
Invested
$126.65
Value
$161.62
PnL
+$34.97
Record
36%
14550-25983 (40533)
Invested
$30
Value
$78
PnL
+$8.5
Record
56%
248-194 (442)
Invested
$35.2
Value
$16.88
PnL
-$6.21
Record
42%
5172-7103 (12275)
Invested
$38.69
Value
$11.19
PnL
+$1.6
Record
53%
320-284 (604)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.