Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (93%). 11 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Anthony Ippolito win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?

11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (92%) · Yes at 7.1¢ · $95 held · ends Mar 14, 2027

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Sun, Mar 14, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 92%

Total Value

$95.27

Combined PnL

$194.91

Research grade

AvoidYes at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 12 top traders (92%)Underdog side (market favors No 93%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$35.44

Total Shares36

Combined PnL+$1.16

Yes11 traders

Total Value$59.83

Total Shares3,860

Combined PnL+$193.75

No — 8%Yes — 92%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Late

119h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

92% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 91% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 95.2¢	$87.62	$35.44	+$1.16	41% 2520-3700 (6220)
AU auros2CTR<$100	Yes	$14.14	$14.14	+$79.59	— 6-1 (7)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.01	$11.85	+$52.19	34% 33217-64988 (98205)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$5.87	$8.83	+$38.9	55% 39043-31788 (70831)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$9.8	$6.21	-$3.59	33% 20011-40834 (60845)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yes	$5.46	$5.46	+$24.03	63% 33619-19478 (53097)
CR crckrCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$5.42	$3.86	-$1.56	28% 797-2091 (2888)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$2.91	$3.79	+$0.88	47% 1374-1522 (2896)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$5.93	$3.7	-$1.46	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.05	$1.24	+$3.86	37% 3313-5705 (9018)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.56	$0.43	-$0.12	19% 2981-12794 (15775)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yes	$0.31	$0.31	+$1.02	34% 2142-4117 (6259)

123987456<$100

Invested

$87.62

Value

$35.44

PnL

+$1.16

Record

41%

2520-3700 (6220)

auros2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.14

Value

$14.14

PnL

+$79.59

Record

—

6-1 (7)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$11.85

PnL

+$52.19

Record

34%

33217-64988 (98205)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.87

Value

$8.83

PnL

+$38.9

Record

55%

39043-31788 (70831)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.8

Value

$6.21

PnL

-$3.59

Record

33%

20011-40834 (60845)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.46

Value

$5.46

PnL

+$24.03

Record

63%

33619-19478 (53097)

crckrCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.42

Value

$3.86

PnL

-$1.56

Record

28%

797-2091 (2888)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.91

Value

$3.79

PnL

+$0.88

Record

47%

1374-1522 (2896)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.93

Value

$3.7

PnL

-$1.46

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

GingerMcKennaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.05

Value

$1.24

PnL

+$3.86

Record

37%

3313-5705 (9018)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.56

Value

$0.43

PnL

-$0.12

Record

19%

2981-12794 (15775)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.31

Value

$0.31

PnL

+$1.02

Record

34%

2142-4117 (6259)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 12 top traders (92%)Underdog side (market favors No 93%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Late

119h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

92% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 91% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance8.5%

7.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1073.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

1173.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.