Will annual inflation be 4.3% or more in October?

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (77%) · No at 100¢ · $690 held · ends Nov 11

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 77%

Total Value

$689.57

Combined PnL

-$10.01

Smart Money Entry

99.8¢ → 99.9¢

+0% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$688.9

Total Shares689

Combined PnL-$3.14

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0.67

Total Shares669

Combined PnL-$6.87

No — 77%Yes — 23%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 45%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

77% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 45% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (13 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 77% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys	Noavg 99.9¢	$182.33	$179.82	+$5.7	77% 12539-3686 (16225)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271	Noavg 99.8¢	$140.98	$131.54	-$9.44	27% 6849-18792 (25641)
NO northdrawer	Noavg 99.9¢	$119.85	$89.91	+$0.02	61% 15934-10208 (26142)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$75.89	$76	+$0.11	58% 19471-14317 (33788)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$96.44	$66.44	-$0.13	59% 11839-8177 (20016)
DO donthackme<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$34.97	$34.98	+$0.01	73% 12875-4800 (17675)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$34.53	$34.97	+$0.44	49% 8853-9359 (18212)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$30.97	$30.97	-$0	41% 1183-1676 (2859)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$28.27	$28.27	-$0	40% 2177-3221 (5398)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$15.88	$15.99	+$0.16	32% 2522-5398 (7920)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.3¢	$5.95	$0.44	-$5.51	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$1.39	$0.22	-$1.29	48% 7105-7804 (14909)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yes	$0.01	$0.01	-$0.07	47% 8368-9535 (17903)

Lucerys

Invested

$182.33

Value

$179.82

PnL

+$5.7

Record

77%

12539-3686 (16225)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Invested

$140.98

Value

$131.54

PnL

-$9.44

Record

27%

6849-18792 (25641)

northdrawer

Invested

$119.85

Value

$89.91

PnL

+$0.02

Record

61%

15934-10208 (26142)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$75.89

Value

$76

PnL

+$0.11

Record

58%

19471-14317 (33788)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$96.44

Value

$66.44

PnL

-$0.13

Record

59%

11839-8177 (20016)

donthackme<$100

Invested

$34.97

Value

$34.98

PnL

+$0.01

Record

73%

12875-4800 (17675)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$34.53

Value

$34.97

PnL

+$0.44

Record

49%

8853-9359 (18212)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$30.97

Value

$30.97

PnL

-$0

Record

41%

1183-1676 (2859)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$28.27

Value

$28.27

PnL

-$0

Record

40%

2177-3221 (5398)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$15.88

Value

$15.99

PnL

+$0.16

Record

32%

2522-5398 (7920)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.95

Value

$0.44

PnL

-$5.51

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.39

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$1.29

Record

48%

7105-7804 (14909)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.07

Record

47%

8368-9535 (17903)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 45%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

77% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 45% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (13 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 77% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.