Will annual inflation be 4.2% in October?

11 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (79%) · No at 100¢ · $761 held · ends Nov 11

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 79%

Total Value

$760.84

Combined PnL

$24.48

Smart Money Entry

99.7¢ → 99.8¢

+0% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 14 top traders (79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$760.09

Total Shares760

Combined PnL+$26.81

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0.75

Total Shares214

Combined PnL-$2.34

No — 79%Yes — 21%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

79% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (13 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 85% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys	Noavg 99.9¢	$182.32	$179.82	+$5.6	77% 12521-3667 (16188)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271	Noavg 99.9¢	$140.99	$131.87	-$9.12	27% 6838-18773 (25611)
GR graynotebook19	Noavg 99.5¢	$115.38	$109.89	+$0.48	61% 14862-9318 (24180)
PL plainfolder<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$93.89	$94.25	+$0.35	31% 3472-7762 (11234)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 99.7¢	$106.25	$76.43	+$0	59% 11831-8157 (19988)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$39.57	$39.96	+$0.39	49% 8836-9340 (18176)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$69.81	$39.9	-$0.03	42% 7010-9803 (16813)
DO donthackme<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$40.72	$34.98	+$28.89	73% 12861-4791 (17652)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$59.94	$29.97	-$0	51% 3681-3532 (7213)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$15.79	$15.99	+$0.24	32% 2511-5383 (7894)
E4 e46m3<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$7.02	$7.02	+$0.01	72% 13948-5333 (19281)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$3.03	$0.69	-$2.34	35% 18146-33983 (52129)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.04	$0.05	+$0.01	18% 4279-20045 (24324)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yes	$0	$0	-$0	47% 8350-9514 (17864)

Lucerys

Invested

$182.32

Value

$179.82

PnL

+$5.6

Record

77%

12521-3667 (16188)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Invested

$140.99

Value

$131.87

PnL

-$9.12

Record

27%

6838-18773 (25611)

graynotebook19

Invested

$115.38

Value

$109.89

PnL

+$0.48

Record

61%

14862-9318 (24180)

plainfolder<$100

Invested

$93.89

Value

$94.25

PnL

+$0.35

Record

31%

3472-7762 (11234)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$106.25

Value

$76.43

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

11831-8157 (19988)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$39.57

Value

$39.96

PnL

+$0.39

Record

49%

8836-9340 (18176)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$69.81

Value

$39.9

PnL

-$0.03

Record

42%

7010-9803 (16813)

donthackme<$100

Invested

$40.72

Value

$34.98

PnL

+$28.89

Record

73%

12861-4791 (17652)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$59.94

Value

$29.97

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

3681-3532 (7213)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$15.79

Value

$15.99

PnL

+$0.24

Record

32%

2511-5383 (7894)

e46m3<$100

Invested

$7.02

Value

$7.02

PnL

+$0.01

Record

72%

13948-5333 (19281)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.03

Value

$0.69

PnL

-$2.34

Record

35%

18146-33983 (52129)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.05

PnL

+$0.01

Record

18%

4279-20045 (24324)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

8350-9514 (17864)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 14 top traders (79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

79% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (13 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 85% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.