Will annual inflation be 3.9% in October?

17 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 99¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 11

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$42.06

Smart Money Entry

92.5¢ → 99¢

+7% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 19 top traders (89%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No17 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares1,920

Combined PnL+$104.64

Yes2 traders

Total Value$24.16

Total Shares415

Combined PnL-$62.58

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Late

505h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (18 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ST Stonktrader	Noavg 90¢	$683.82	$752.02	+$55.66	75% 184-60 (244)
balthazar	Noavg 90.2¢	$165.71	$181.88	+$16.18	53% 29396-26298 (55694)
Lucerys	Noavg 98.9¢	$178.07	$178.11	+$0.04	77% 12654-3874 (16528)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 99¢	$168.26	$168.22	-$0.05	53% 22809-20010 (42819)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271	Noavg 97.1¢	$139.39	$131.54	-$7.85	27% 6898-18905 (25803)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 92.1¢	$82.85	$89.06	+$6.21	49% 8853-9361 (18214)
PL plainfolder<$100	Noavg 85.5¢	$68.4	$79.16	+$10.76	31% 3522-7876 (11398)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 92.9¢	$98.98	$75.71	+$4.5	59% 11938-8372 (20310)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$74	$74.21	+$0.21	61% 15949-10240 (26189)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 96.9¢	$73.62	$39.58	+$0.83	46% 10331-12028 (22359)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 86¢	$25.8	$29.69	+$3.89	42% 7033-9821 (16854)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99¢	$28.03	$28	-$0.03	42% 1202-1687 (2889)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$86.75	$24.15	-$62.6	35% 18318-34086 (52404)
2B9S<$100	Noavg 85¢	$18.52	$21.24	+$2.72	18% 4304-20139 (24443)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 79.4¢	$12.99	$16.15	+$3.21	32% 2587-5457 (8044)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 99¢	$14.86	$14.84	-$0.01	44% 2206-2850 (5056)
GI GingerMcKenna<$100	Noavg 76¢	$10.64	$13.85	+$3.21	38% 3083-4954 (8037)
DO donthackme<$100	Noavg 89¢	$9.73	$9.9	+$5.16	73% 12907-4853 (17760)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yes	$0.01	$0.01	+$0.02	47% 8377-9565 (17942)

Stonktrader

Invested

$683.82

Value

$752.02

PnL

+$55.66

Record

75%

184-60 (244)

balthazar

Invested

$165.71

Value

$181.88

PnL

+$16.18

Record

53%

29396-26298 (55694)

Lucerys

Invested

$178.07

Value

$178.11

PnL

+$0.04

Record

77%

12654-3874 (16528)

cigarettes

Invested

$168.26

Value

$168.22

PnL

-$0.05

Record

53%

22809-20010 (42819)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Invested

$139.39

Value

$131.54

PnL

-$7.85

Record

27%

6898-18905 (25803)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$82.85

Value

$89.06

PnL

+$6.21

Record

49%

8853-9361 (18214)

plainfolder<$100

Invested

$68.4

Value

$79.16

PnL

+$10.76

Record

31%

3522-7876 (11398)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$98.98

Value

$75.71

PnL

+$4.5

Record

59%

11938-8372 (20310)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$74

Value

$74.21

PnL

+$0.21

Record

61%

15949-10240 (26189)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$73.62

Value

$39.58

PnL

+$0.83

Record

46%

10331-12028 (22359)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$25.8

Value

$29.69

PnL

+$3.89

Record

42%

7033-9821 (16854)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$28.03

Value

$28

PnL

-$0.03

Record

42%

1202-1687 (2889)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$86.75

Value

$24.15

PnL

-$62.6

Record

35%

18318-34086 (52404)

2B9S<$100

Invested

$18.52

Value

$21.24

PnL

+$2.72

Record

18%

4304-20139 (24443)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$12.99

Value

$16.15

PnL

+$3.21

Record

32%

2587-5457 (8044)

123987456<$100

Invested

$14.86

Value

$14.84

PnL

-$0.01

Record

44%

2206-2850 (5056)

GingerMcKenna<$100

Invested

$10.64

Value

$13.85

PnL

+$3.21

Record

38%

3083-4954 (8037)

donthackme<$100

Invested

$9.73

Value

$9.9

PnL

+$5.16

Record

73%

12907-4853 (17760)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$0.02

Record

47%

8377-9565 (17942)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 19 top traders (89%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Late

505h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (18 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.