Will annual inflation be 3.9% in November?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 86¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 10

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Thu, Dec 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$109.08

Smart Money Entry

80.9¢ → 86¢

+6% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$977.76

Total Shares1,126

Combined PnL+$109.78

Yes2 traders

Total Value$37.4

Total Shares220

Combined PnL-$0.7

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Late

50h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
perfectnostalgia	Noavg 83¢	$542.45	$568.6	+$26.14	— 0-4 (4)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 79.7¢	$200.33	$201.26	+$17.33	65% 4388-2415 (6803)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 79¢	$353.94	$90.89	+$44.85	39% 1111-1753 (2864)
GA Gaditima<$100	Noavg 73¢	$72.99	$86.99	+$14	49% 400-411 (811)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$38	$34	-$4	48% 1239-1326 (2565)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 78¢	$15.6	$17.4	+$1.8	53% 7546-6651 (14197)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 78¢	$158.48	$8.38	+$5.65	38% 3843-6310 (10153)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 85¢	$4.25	$4.25	+$0	40% 280-413 (693)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$31.1	$3.4	+$3.3	60% 1470-973 (2443)

perfectnostalgia

Invested

$542.45

Value

$568.6

PnL

+$26.14

Record

—

0-4 (4)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$200.33

Value

$201.26

PnL

+$17.33

Record

65%

4388-2415 (6803)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$353.94

Value

$90.89

PnL

+$44.85

Record

39%

1111-1753 (2864)

Gaditima<$100

Invested

$72.99

Value

$86.99

PnL

+$14

Record

49%

400-411 (811)

ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38

Value

$34

PnL

-$4

Record

48%

1239-1326 (2565)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$15.6

Value

$17.4

PnL

+$1.8

Record

53%

7546-6651 (14197)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$158.48

Value

$8.38

PnL

+$5.65

Record

38%

3843-6310 (10153)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$4.25

Value

$4.25

PnL

+$0

Record

40%

280-413 (693)

shiifooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.1

Value

$3.4

PnL

+$3.3

Record

60%

1470-973 (2443)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Late

50h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.6%

86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.