Will annual inflation be 3.8% in October?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 91¢ · $366 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
1 arb excluded
$365.97
-$13.21
92.5¢ → 90.6¢
-2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-4 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Late
78h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Noavg 92.8¢ | $145.42 | $143.91 | -$1.51 | 53% 23554-20762 (44316) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 83.5¢ | $199.8 | $81.23 | -$7.2 | 34% 19212-36836 (56048) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 83.5¢ | $57.6 | $55.17 | -$39.73 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 12.7¢ | $35.11 | $26.06 | +$32.53 | |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $51.59 | $52.05 | +$0.46 | 40% 6535-9791 (16326) |
LP lpgb<$100 | Noavg 94.7¢ | $80.16 | $34.58 | -$6.39 | 26% 580-1646 (2226) |
DO donthackme<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $32.21 | $27.98 | -$4.22 | 68% 13194-6212 (19406) |
PL plainfolder<$100 | Noavg 89.3¢ | $26.78 | $23.99 | -$2.8 | 31% 4467-9741 (14208) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $0.15 | $1.21 | +$1.05 | 17% 4496-22008 (26504) |
GO god83743894CTR<$100 | Yes | $0.26 | $0.26 | +$0.2 | 43% 10615-14080 (24695) |
Invested
$145.42
Value
$143.91
PnL
-$1.51
Record
53%
23554-20762 (44316)
Invested
$199.8
Value
$81.23
PnL
-$7.2
Record
34%
19212-36836 (56048)
Both legs:
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$51.59
Value
$52.05
PnL
+$0.46
Record
40%
6535-9791 (16326)
Invested
$80.16
Value
$34.58
PnL
-$6.39
Record
26%
580-1646 (2226)
Invested
$32.21
Value
$27.98
PnL
-$4.22
Record
68%
13194-6212 (19406)
Invested
$26.78
Value
$23.99
PnL
-$2.8
Record
31%
4467-9741 (14208)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$0.15
Value
$1.21
PnL
+$1.05
Record
17%
4496-22008 (26504)
Invested
$0.26
Value
$0.26
PnL
+$0.2
Record
43%
10615-14080 (24695)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.