Will annual inflation be 3.5% in October?

13 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (81%) · No at 99¢ · $872 held · ends Nov 11

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 81%

Total Value

$871.69

Combined PnL

$25.83

Smart Money Entry

99.6¢ → 99.3¢

+0% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 16 top traders (81%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$867.13

Total Shares869

Combined PnL+$27.87

Yes3 traders

Total Value$4.56

Total Shares537

Combined PnL-$2.04

No — 81%Yes — 19%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

81% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (16 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 81% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI mildwindow27	Noavg 99.7¢	$260.18	$194.23	+$30.65	47% 8368-9535 (17903)
Lucerys	Noavg 99.6¢	$181.81	$179.28	+$5.65	77% 12539-3686 (16225)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271	Noavg 99.4¢	$140.38	$132.13	-$8.25	27% 6849-18792 (25641)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$84.63	$84.66	+$0.03	42% 7028-9819 (16847)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$97.48	$67.48	-$0.19	59% 11839-8177 (20016)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$43.63	$43.66	+$0.03	53% 29258-26174 (55432)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$39.96	$39.84	-$0.12	49% 8853-9359 (18212)
DO donthackme<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$34.97	$34.87	-$0.1	73% 12875-4800 (17675)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$29.89	$29.88	-$0.01	61% 15934-10208 (26142)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$28.19	$28.19	-$0.01	47% 2141-2439 (4580)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$15.79	$15.95	+$0.2	32% 2522-5398 (7920)
PL plainfolder<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$9.98	$9.96	-$0.02	31% 3488-7778 (11266)
E4 e46m3<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$7	$7	-$0	72% 13979-5358 (19337)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$6.23	$3.66	-$2.57	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
perfectnostalgiaCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.35	$0.74	+$0.39	55% 350-281 (631)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$0.23	$0.16	+$0.13	58% 19471-14317 (33788)

mildwindow27

Invested

$260.18

Value

$194.23

PnL

+$30.65

Record

47%

8368-9535 (17903)

Lucerys

Invested

$181.81

Value

$179.28

PnL

+$5.65

Record

77%

12539-3686 (16225)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Invested

$140.38

Value

$132.13

PnL

-$8.25

Record

27%

6849-18792 (25641)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$84.63

Value

$84.66

PnL

+$0.03

Record

42%

7028-9819 (16847)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$97.48

Value

$67.48

PnL

-$0.19

Record

59%

11839-8177 (20016)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$43.63

Value

$43.66

PnL

+$0.03

Record

53%

29258-26174 (55432)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$39.96

Value

$39.84

PnL

-$0.12

Record

49%

8853-9359 (18212)

donthackme<$100

Invested

$34.97

Value

$34.87

PnL

-$0.1

Record

73%

12875-4800 (17675)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$29.89

Value

$29.88

PnL

-$0.01

Record

61%

15934-10208 (26142)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$28.19

Value

$28.19

PnL

-$0.01

Record

47%

2141-2439 (4580)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$15.79

Value

$15.95

PnL

+$0.2

Record

32%

2522-5398 (7920)

plainfolder<$100

Invested

$9.98

Value

$9.96

PnL

-$0.02

Record

31%

3488-7778 (11266)

e46m3<$100

Invested

Value

PnL

-$0

Record

72%

13979-5358 (19337)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.23

Value

$3.66

PnL

-$2.57

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

perfectnostalgiaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.35

Value

$0.74

PnL

+$0.39

Record

55%

350-281 (631)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.23

Value

$0.16

PnL

+$0.13

Record

58%

19471-14317 (33788)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 16 top traders (81%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

81% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (16 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 81% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.