Will annual inflation be 3.3% in October?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 100¢ · $669 held · ends Nov 11

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$668.85

Combined PnL

-$11.3

Smart Money Entry

99.8¢ → 99.9¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$668.4

Total Shares669

Combined PnL-$8.81

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.45

Total Shares301

Combined PnL-$2.48

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Mature

44h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys	Noavg 99.9¢	$179.83	$179.82	-$0.01	78% 12472-3601 (16073)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271	Noavg 99.8¢	$141.02	$131.61	-$9.41	27% 6823-18740 (25563)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$94.9	$94.91	+$0	49% 8797-9307 (18104)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$89.35	$89.74	+$0.39	58% 19424-14279 (33703)
QU quietparcel	Noavg 99.6¢	$130.44	$64.9	+$0.18	50% 9754-9733 (19487)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$86.45	$56.45	-$0.13	59% 11786-8040 (19826)
DO donthackme<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$34.97	$34.98	+$0.01	73% 12849-4764 (17613)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$15.84	$15.99	+$0.16	32% 2469-5347 (7816)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$2.93	$0.45	-$2.48	35% 18059-33813 (51872)

Lucerys

Invested

$179.83

Value

$179.82

PnL

-$0.01

Record

78%

12472-3601 (16073)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Invested

$141.02

Value

$131.61

PnL

-$9.41

Record

27%

6823-18740 (25563)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$94.9

Value

$94.91

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

8797-9307 (18104)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$89.35

Value

$89.74

PnL

+$0.39

Record

58%

19424-14279 (33703)

quietparcel

Invested

$130.44

Value

$64.9

PnL

+$0.18

Record

50%

9754-9733 (19487)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$86.45

Value

$56.45

PnL

-$0.13

Record

59%

11786-8040 (19826)

donthackme<$100

Invested

$34.97

Value

$34.98

PnL

+$0.01

Record

73%

12849-4764 (17613)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$15.84

Value

$15.99

PnL

+$0.16

Record

32%

2469-5347 (7816)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.93

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$2.48

Record

35%

18059-33813 (51872)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Mature

44h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.