Will Angela Gonzales-Torres win the CA-34 House seat?

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 79¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4

Yes79¢No21¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 25%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$88.11

Smart Money Entry

77.8¢ → 79¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes79%

No21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,409

Combined PnL+$2.51

No6 traders

Total Value$195.88

Total Shares933

Combined PnL-$90.62

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

550h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xfcb034ffesa540c81ad37321212f6e0c762feac8	Yesavg 79¢	$971.99	$971.59	-$0.4	71% 60-24 (84)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Yesavg 69.7¢	$138.22	$141.13	+$2.91	35% 17563-32834 (50397)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Noavg 9.7¢	$6.95	$88.16	-$9.71	73% 12604-4594 (17198)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 24¢	$10.79	$80.94	-$46.91	54% 22035-19135 (41170)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100	Noavg 56¢	$50.4	$18.9	-$33.3	50% 1249-1274 (2523)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Noavg 22.5¢	$13.5	$6.3	-$0.68	41% 6729-9567 (16296)
VA Vale54holiCTR<$100	Noavg 22¢	$1.12	$1.04	-$0.07	27% 218-592 (810)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Noavg 18.9¢	$0.49	$0.54	+$0.05	50% 1695-1681 (3376)

0xfcb034ffesa540c81ad37321212f6e0c762feac8

Yes

Invested

$971.99

Value

$971.59

PnL

-$0.4

Record

71%

60-24 (84)

xtxpleasecallme

Yes

Invested

$138.22

Value

$141.13

PnL

+$2.91

Record

35%

17563-32834 (50397)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Invested

$6.95

Value

$88.16

PnL

-$9.71

Record

73%

12604-4594 (17198)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$10.79

Value

$80.94

PnL

-$46.91

Record

54%

22035-19135 (41170)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100

Invested

$50.4

Value

$18.9

PnL

-$33.3

Record

50%

1249-1274 (2523)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Invested

$13.5

Value

$6.3

PnL

-$0.68

Record

41%

6729-9567 (16296)

Vale54holiCTR<$100

Invested

$1.12

Value

$1.04

PnL

-$0.07

Record

27%

218-592 (810)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Invested

$0.49

Value

$0.54

PnL

+$0.05

Record

50%

1695-1681 (3376)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 79%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

550h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.8%

79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.