Will Andrey Gyurov win the second round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election by 8–12%?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 96¢ · $563 held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$563.32
$6.96
96.6¢ → 96.1¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 95.7¢ | $325.63 | $283.98 | -$41.65 | 61% 20889-13298 (34187) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 97.9¢ | $204 | $200 | -$4 | 22% 291-1025 (1316) |
74 0x7495...7fcfCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.1¢ | $5.02 | $39.43 | +$34.41 | 18% 522-2339 (2861) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.4¢ | $15.66 | $34.75 | +$19.09 | 36% 15157-27275 (42432) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $6.04 | $5.14 | -$0.89 | 32% 4382-9430 (13812) |
balthazarInvested
$325.63
Value
$283.98
PnL
-$41.65
Record
61%
20889-13298 (34187)
IstarothInvested
$204
Value
$200
PnL
-$4
Record
22%
291-1025 (1316)
Invested
$5.02
Value
$39.43
PnL
+$34.41
Record
18%
522-2339 (2861)
Invested
$15.66
Value
$34.75
PnL
+$19.09
Record
36%
15157-27275 (42432)
Invested
$6.04
Value
$5.14
PnL
-$0.89
Record
32%
4382-9430 (13812)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.