Will Ana Lilia Rivera Rivera win the 2027 Tlaxcala Governor Election?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 69¢ · $3K held · ends Jun 7, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$3.3K
$1.7K
36.6¢ → 69.5¢
+90% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+20 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Late
620h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Yesavg 20.6¢ | $561.26 | $1.8K | +$1.2K | 53% 1100-980 (2080) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Yesavg 54.5¢ | $704.98 | $744.06 | +$158.01 | 36% 14842-26964 (41806) |
 FrozenParasite | Yesavg 57¢ | $130.12 | $733.76 | +$323.45 | 55% 444-365 (809) |
 paddaaCTR<$100 | Noavg 52.1¢ | $38.39 | $23.19 | -$15.2 | 57% 815-625 (1440) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 35.1¢ | $0.05 | $0.51 | +$0.47 | 57% 3053-2302 (5355) |
Invested
$561.26
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$1.2K
Record
53%
1100-980 (2080)
Invested
$704.98
Value
$744.06
PnL
+$158.01
Record
36%
14842-26964 (41806)
FrozenParasiteInvested
$130.12
Value
$733.76
PnL
+$323.45
Record
55%
444-365 (809)
paddaaCTR<$100Invested
$38.39
Value
$23.19
PnL
-$15.2
Record
57%
815-625 (1440)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$0.05
Value
$0.51
PnL
+$0.47
Record
57%
3053-2302 (5355)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.